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Nunavut holds roughly half of the commercial shrimp and turbot quota in its adjacent waters, compared with 80 to 90% for southern coastal jurisdictions. A 2023 analysis by Inference Economics estimated this gap to cost Inuit $1.1 billion between 1993 and 2022, and that a ten-year delay in closing it adds $277 million.
Nunavut's share of the offshore shrimp and turbot quota in its adjacent waters has grown slowly over three decades, mostly through litigation and incremental quota increases rather than reallocation. Published research tracks the combined share at 41% in 2009, 42% in 2014 and 52% in 2019 (Bernauer, 2022). Over the same period, Nunavut's shrimp share rose from 14% in 1999 to 38% in 2019, and its turbot share rose from 27% to 76%.
Recent licence purchases by Nunavut enterprises have since raised Nunavut's shrimp share to 46%. Including those purchases, Nunavut now holds 54% of the combined shrimp and turbot quota in its adjacent waters, based on Inference Economics' analysis of current allocations.
The Government of Nunavut reports that coastal jurisdictions in southern Canada typically hold 80 to 90% of the quota in waters adjacent to them. Nunavut remains well below that benchmark more than 30 years after the Nunavut Agreement committed Canada to a fair distribution of fishing licences.
Nunavut's 76% share of turbot quota is a tonnage figure, and not every tonne is worth the same. Almost all of the quota in turbot subarea 0A belongs to Nunavut, but 0A is remote, ice-bound and costly to fish. Subarea 0B, further south, is more accessible and more profitable.
In 0B, Nunavut holds 3,841 of 7,798 tonnes, or 49% of the quota. The largest single non-Nunavut holding in 0B is FNC Quota's 1,687 tonnes, or 22% of the subarea. Measured by economic value rather than tonnage, Nunavut's position in turbot is considerably weaker than the 76% figure suggests.
Based on a 2023 analysis, Inference Economics estimates the economic losses to Nunavut Inuit from the historical distribution of quota by comparing two scenarios. The first uses the actual distribution of quota from 1993 to 2022. The second assumes Nunavut held 90% of adjacent quota from 1993 onward, the upper end of what southern jurisdictions hold. The difference between the economic benefits generated in each scenario is the cost of the gap.
We estimate that cost at $1.11 billion in 2023 dollars, made up of:
By category, foregone Inuit compensation accounts for $453 million, royalties for $388 million and profits for $268 million, including opportunity costs.
The losses do not stop when quota is transferred. Nunavut enterprises need time to acquire vessels, build capacity and train Inuit crews, so the benefits of new quota ramp up over years. That makes timing a significant economic variable.
The ten-year delay alone costs Nunavut an additional $277 million in present value (2023 dollars).
The economic rent from a commercial fishery flows to whoever holds the licence, through royalties, profits and management jobs, no matter where the fish are caught. Offshore licences in Canada are effectively permanent. An allocation decision therefore determines where that rent flows for decades, not for a single season.
The Federal Court recognized this in 2024 when it quashed the 2021 transfer of Clearwater Seafoods' licences to FNC Quota. The Court found that the Minister "failed to give special consideration to the principles of adjacency and economic dependence by not recognizing that without the reallocation of at least some of the Clearwater licences to Nunavut fishers, Nunavut interests are unlikely to gain access comparable to other provinces due to the permanent nature of these licences." The Court also noted that the landed value of these fisheries "is significant in the context of the smaller Nunavut economy relative to the economies of other provinces."
Geography reinforces the point. Measured by straight-line distance to the boundary of the nearest shrimp fishing area, Qikiqtani communities such as Qikiqtarjuaq, Clyde River, Pond Inlet and Pangnirtung sit between 0 and 56 nautical miles away. The Mi'kmaq communities that own FNC Quota sit between 776 and 895 nautical miles away.
The three licences under redetermination give FNC Quota two offshore northern shrimp licences, worth about 2,672 tonnes of quota, and 1,687 tonnes of turbot in subarea 0B. At current prices of $3,802 per tonne for shrimp and $4,100 per tonne for turbot, that quota generates about $17.1 million in revenue a year.
That is about 7% of the combined shrimp and turbot quota in Nunavut's adjacent waters. Transferring it would not, on its own, bring Nunavut to parity with southern jurisdictions. But the expectation that a single licence decision should transform an entire economy is not a reasonable standard. Parity will come through a series of decisions, and each one moves a permanent stream of rent.
Licence revenue also compounds. Nunavut enterprises can use it to repay vessel debt, upgrade vessels to process catch on board and reduce economic leakage, and finance purchases of further licences from willing sellers. Additional licences put Nunavut enterprises in a position to negotiate with southern licence holders and move toward parity without further government intervention.
By headline measures, Nunavut looks wealthy. Its GDP per capita was roughly US$100,000 in 2024, about 82% higher than Canada's, and a level exceeded only by Monaco, Bermuda, Luxembourg, Ireland and Switzerland. However, that figure reflects resource extraction, not household prosperity. Mining and public administration together account for about 53% of Nunavut's GDP, compared with 12% for Canada as a whole, and much of the wealth from mining flows to owners and workers outside the territory.
In the 12 Qikiqtani communities outside Iqaluit, median incomes ranged from about $23,500 to $32,000 in 2021, against a national median of $40,500. Unemployment in those communities averaged 21%, nearly three times the national rate of 7.5%. Labour force participation was 51.3%, compared with 65.5% nationally, which suggests many residents who want work cannot find it locally.
Fisheries are one of the few sectors that can change that. Offshore fishing jobs are well paid and can draw on workers from across Nunavut's communities. Inuit-owned fishing enterprises pay royalties to Inuit organizations, which invest them locally, and reinvest profits in other businesses in the territory. Fishery rent held by Nunavut enterprises stays in Nunavut in a way that mining rent largely does not.
Statistics Canada's input-output multipliers give a sense of scale. Fisheries contributed about $83.5 million to Nunavut's GDP and 179 jobs in 2024, according to DFO. We estimate the $17.1 million in annual revenue from the three Clearwater licences would add roughly $7.2 million to Nunavut's GDP and about 39 jobs. These multipliers understate the long-run effect, because they reflect today's high leakage, which additional revenue would help reduce.
Nunavut holds roughly half of the combined northern shrimp and turbot quota in its adjacent waters, 54% as of 2026. The Government of Nunavut reports that southern coastal jurisdictions typically hold 80 to 90% of the quota adjacent to them. In turbot subarea 0B, the most accessible and profitable turbot area, Nunavut holds 49% of the quota.
Inference Economics estimates that Nunavut Inuit lost $1.11 billion (2023 dollars) between 1993 and 2022 because Nunavut was held to an inequitable distribution of quota. The total includes $617 million in direct losses from foregone wages, royalties and profits, and $492 million in opportunity costs.
Inference Economics estimates that moving Nunavut to 90% of adjacent quota in 2033 rather than immediately would cost Inuit an additional $277 million in present value (2023 dollars). Losses continue after quota is transferred because Nunavut enterprises need years to build fleet capacity and train Inuit crews, so each year of delay pushes full recovery further out.
The three Clearwater licences held by FNC Quota cover about 2,672 tonnes of northern shrimp and 1,687 tonnes of turbot in waters adjacent to Nunavut. At current prices, that quota generates about $17.1 million in revenue a year, roughly 7% of the combined shrimp and turbot quota in Nunavut's adjacent waters.
The economic rent from a commercial fishery goes to whoever holds the licence, through royalties, profits and management jobs, regardless of where the fish are caught. Because offshore licences in Canada are effectively permanent, an allocation decision determines where that rent flows for decades. In 2024 the Federal Court found that without reallocating some Clearwater licences, Nunavut was unlikely to gain access comparable to other provinces because of the permanent nature of these licences.
Estimates of foregone benefits are from Inference Economics' model of Nunavut's offshore fisheries, which uses historical catch and price data, operational data from Nunavut fishing enterprises, and interviews with industry management. All figures are in Canadian dollars unless noted. Inference Economics has advised the Qikiqtani Inuit Association on fisheries since 2022.
Written by: Kiernan Gange, Lead Economist, Inference Economics.
